NBA lottery tracker: How good are the Mavericks’ odds of keeping their top-5 protected pick this summer?

*Editor’s note: This post will be updated nightly through the end of the regular season.

The Dallas Mavericks are headed for a finish among the NBA’s draft lottery teams, that much is not in doubt. Entering Tuesday’s action, the Mavericks are 29-44 and eliminated from playoff contention.

They traded away four members of their season-opening starting five — Dennis Smith Jr., Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes and DeAndre Jordan — across two trades that landed them All-Star Kristaps Porzingis and cleared $30 million in salary cap space for this summer.

The hope around the franchise is that those moves pay off in a big way starting next season. For now, the Mavericks are playing out the remainder of the 2018-19 campaign leaning on rookie Luka Doncic and giving big minutes to players who were reserves before the league’s trade deadline.

What isn’t nearly as certain as their lottery finish is whether the Mavericks will actually get to keep their top draft pick.

As part of the draft-night trade with Atlanta that landed Doncic last summer, the Mavericks dealt a top-five protected 2019 first-round pick to the Hawks — meaning if Dallas’ pick lands outside of the top five in the draft lottery, the pick is conveyed to Atlanta.

If the Mavericks finish within the top five or hit the lottery jackpot, they keep this year’s pick and would then convey their 2020 first-round pick to the Hawks, regardless of draft position.

So, just how strong are the odds that Dallas keeps its top pick this summer? Here’s a quick breakdown of the many ways the ping-pong balls could bounce come May under the new odds implemented by the league for this year (numbers via Tankathon.com):

Overall lottery standings

Team Record Win % Games back Top-4 pick No. 1 overall
1. New York 14-60 .189 52.1% 14.0%
2. Phoenix 17-58 .227 2.5 52.1% 14.0%
3. Cleveland 19-55 .257 5.0 52.1% 14.0%
4. Chicago 21-53 .284 7.0 48.1% 12.5%
5. Atlanta 26-48 .351 12.0 42.1% 10.5%
6. Dallas 29-44 .397 15.5 32.7% 9.0%
7. Washington 30-44 .405 16.0 29.4% 6.8%
*7. Memphis 30-44 .405 16.0 29.0% 6.7%
9. New Orleans 31-44 .413 16.5 20.3% 4.5%
10. LA Lakers 32-41 .438 18.5 13.9% 3.0%
11. Minnesota 33-40 .452 19.5 9.4% 2.0%
12. Charlotte 34-39 .466 20.5 7.1% 1.5%
13. Orlando 36-38 .486 22.0 4.8% 1.0%
14. Sacramento 36-37 .493 22.5 2.4% 0.5%

*-A random drawing at the end of the season is the NBA’s tiebreaker for lottery seeding purposes. Tankathon.com factors in current streaks, last 10 win percentage, overall losses and a power ranking to determine tiebreakers for its current standings in the occasion of a tie.

Top-4 odds for teams seeded outside the top 5

Note: Only the top four picks of the NBA draft are awarded by a drawing of ping-pong balls, assuring the team with the league’s worst record gets no worse than the fifth overall pick. Picks 5-14 are filled out with the remaining lottery teams, sorted by record.

Lottery position No. 1 pick No. 2 pick No. 3 pick No. 4 pick
6th 9.0% 9.2% 9.4% 9.6%
7th 7.5% 7.8% 8.1% 8.5%
8th 6.0% 6.3% 6.7% 7.2%
9th 4.5% 4.8% 5.2% 5.7%
10th 3.0% 3.3% 3.6% 4.0%
11th 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.8%
12th 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1%
13th 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4%
14th 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%

*-The Mavericks are tied for sixth entering Tuesday’s action. The numbers above are base odds for each position, so they do not reflect ties. The NBA determines any tiebreakers at the end of the season via random drawing.

The 2019 NBA draft lottery takes place Tuesday, May 14, in Chicago. The 2019 draft is set for Thursday, June 20, in Brooklyn.

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