Home for the holidays, the Carolina Panthers entertain the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon with control of the NFC South on the line.
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Buccaneers can claim ownership of the South, holding at least a share of the division lead for 73 of the 87 weeks with four consecutive division titles.
Carolina last won the division in 2015 but the Panthers share first place in the NFC South, matching Tampa Bay’s current 7-7 record with three weeks — and two games against the Buccaneers — left in the regular season.
“We’re in the same position we’ve been in the past two or three years,” Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles said of a tight race. “We have an opportunity. We still have everything right in front of us. … We’re playing meaningful games in December.”
The Panthers might be early arrivals to the postseason conversation under second-year coach Dave Canales. Wins over NFC contenders — most recently beating the current conference leader, the Los Angeles Rams, 31-28, on Nov. 30 — has helped shift the narrative.
Canales and the Panthers are well aware of the final step necessary to realize a postseason goal: beat the division champs.
The Buccaneers have won five consecutive meetings and nine of the previous 10, outscoring Carolina by 124 points (287-163).
“We understand what it’s going to require,” Canales said. “It’s going to require our best.”
It might take two victories over the Bucs for the Panthers to pass them because of tiebreakers, unless the Miami Dolphins beat Tampa Bay next week.
While there are evolving paths to winning the division title, both teams are coming off frustrating defeats and don’t want to get caught looking too far forward.
The Buccaneers have won only once since October, so their 1-5 record coming down the stretch has been troublesome. They’ve lost to NFC South rivals New Orleans and Atlanta in their past two games.
“We just got to take advantage of it now,” Buccaneers offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs said. “Got to go win.”
The Panthers are 3-3 since the beginning of November with noteworthy wins over the Rams and Packers. But last week’s 20-17 loss at New Orleans, a penalty-filled outing, was temporarily deflating.
“In this league, you have to turn the page,” Carolina quarterback Bryce Young said.
Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield, a former Panther, was coached by Canales in Tampa before the Panthers hired him away in 2024.
Mayfield should have a nice selection of weapons to work with after last week’s return of wide receiver Mike Evans. Coming back from a collarbone injury, Evans hauled in six catches for 132 yards in the Atlanta game and already had the Panthers’ full attention.
Canales said Evans, another player he’s familiar with from his tenure with and against the Bucs in this division, tends to draw pass interference penalties. He wants the Panthers to be sharp in the secondary. It’s not only Evans that concerns Carolina. The Bucs had 254 combined yards and 14 first downs by their wide receivers last week.
“This is a guy (Evans) that forces you to play a physical nature,” Canales said. “We have to be up to the challenge.”
Buccaneers running back Sean Tucker has scored five touchdowns in the last seven games.
Tampa Bay played its previous game on a Thursday night, so the Buccaneers are hoping the extra recovery time pays off. Mayfield said preparations for the Panthers have resulted in encouraging signs.
“A good practice, the first good one we’ve had on a Wednesday in a while,” Mayfield said.
Tampa Bay cornerback Zyon McCollum (hip) went on injured reserve this week. Perhaps this will lead to opportunities for Panthers receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who has a team-leading 851 receiving yards. But the rookie hasn’t reached 50 yards in any of the past three games.
“That’s the league, teams make adjustments,” Young said. “But he’s special and that’s not going to change.”
McMillian, who didn’t practice Wednesday because of a foot ailment, is likely to be matched up against Tampa Bay’s Jamel Dean.
Carolina’s injury concerns also include offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu, who’s listed as day-to-day with a knee injury suffered in New Orleans.
Tampa Bay would win the division by splitting with the Panthers as long as it wins next week vs. Miami.
